Negative art 37:57 The Most Important Thing - Origins and Inspirations Negative art (37:57) Taleb says the future consists of a range of possibilites with the outcome significantly influenced by randomness Galbraith says forcasting is futile Ellis says if the game isn't controllable, it's a better to work to avoid losers than to try for winners Oaktree's Investment Philosophy (38:13) The primacy of risk control Emphasis on consistency The importance of market inefficiency The benefits of specialization Macro-forecasting not critical to investing Three Adages: What the wise does in the beginning, the fool does in the end ( the innovator, the imitator, the idiot) Never forget the six-foot-tall man who drowned crossing the stream that was five feet deep on average Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong race at the bottom(1:06:57): There's a race to the b...