Howard Marks - The oaktree investment philosophy

Negative art  37:57

The Most Important Thing - Origins and Inspirations

Negative art (37:57)

Taleb says the future consists of a range of possibilites with the
outcome significantly influenced by randomness

Galbraith says forcasting is futile

Ellis says if the game isn't controllable, it's a better to work to avoid
losers than to try for winners


Oaktree's Investment Philosophy (38:13)

• The primacy of risk control

• Emphasis on consistency

• The importance of market inefficiency

• The benefits of specialization

• Macro-forecasting not critical to investing

Three Adages:

• What the wise does in the beginning, the fool does in the end

    ( the innovator, the imitator, the idiot)

• Never forget the six-foot-tall man who drowned crossing the stream that 

     was five feet deep on average

• Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong

race at the bottom(1:06:57):
There's a race to the bottom going on, reflecting a widespread reduction in the level
of prudence on the part of investors and capital providers.  No one can prove at
this point that those who participate will be punished,
or that their long-run performance won't exceed that of the naysayers. 
But that is the usual pattern

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