ENSO global seasonal climate update 2026

3 sep 2026

Outlook for Oceanic Drivers for the Next Season:

For the September–November 2026 (SON 2026) season, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts indicate a further development toward stronger El Niño conditions. The seasonal average Niño 3.4 SST ensemble mean anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 3.6°C during SON 2026, with the intensification trajectory peaking in November-December. The spread among individual forecast systems generally remains narrow, reflecting high forecast confidence.

In the Indian Ocean, a positive IOD phase is also expected to develop, reaching an SON 2026 seasonal mean value of 0.9°C. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is forecast to remain generally warm, with SSTs in both the North and South Tropical Atlantic staying above normal.

RA II (Asia): Multi-model ensemble forecasts indicate significant spatial contrasts in precipitation

probabilities. A robust enhancement in the probability for below-normal rainfall dominates the Indian

Subcontinent, supported by high model consistency across the region. Conversely, to itsnorthwest, an

enhancement in probabilities for above-normal rainfall extends across northern parts of the Arabian

Peninsula into Central Asia. Over northern parts of Asia, a weak enhancement in above-normal rainfall

probability is indicated. Over East Asia and Southeast Asia, the rainfall signal is more nuanced: an

enhancement in below-normal rainfall probabilities covers southern and insular Southeast Asia

(extending into the western Maritime Continent), whereas parts of northeastern Asia exhibit localized

enhancements in above-normal rainfall probabilities.

WMO

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