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Investors' Burden: China in Focus as Eurozone Improves 30 jul 2013

Cushla Sherlock: A year ago, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi settled markets with his vow to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro. How would you characterize the current situation in the Eurozone?

Michael Strobaek: The situation is significantly better now. With his comments a year ago, Mario Draghi managed to put a backstop to fears that the Eurozone was on the verge of collapsing. Since then, we have seen peripheral bond spreads come down significantly. That too, has calmed the situation and made it clear to investors that the Eurozone will move on from the recession. Growth indicators for the area have positively surprised recently, showing that the Eurozone is slowly recovering.
While investors still called the Eurozone the number one risk a year ago, today they are most concerned about a hard landing of the Chinese economy. Will we see a further slowdown in China's growth?

First, we do not think China is in for a hard landing. But growth is likely to slow marginally further. China has significant structural issues that are now coming to the forefront. It is in transition to become a consumption-led economy. The new government is focused on ensuring that the financial sector does not collapse, and it is advising caution with regard to overleveraging and overheating. As we have seen recently, the government has sharply intervened by pushing up short-term interest rates. But, as mentioned, no hard landing for China.
The development of stock, bond and currency markets in recent weeks was further marked by central bank policy. What's your take on the situation?

Markets overreacted when the US central bank initially indicated that they would taper – or wind down the amount of bond purchases – quickly. Markets overreacted because they misunderstood the Fed's message. The Fed did not intend to say it would make an early exit, but that it would consider winding back the program when better economic data came in. Therefore the first reaction was exaggerated, particularly in emerging markets. Now that the Fed has pulled that communication back, markets have actually gone to new highs. We think they are now pricing in the best of two worlds: good growth numbers, as well as continued, very positive quantitative easing.

With regard to equities, we advise investors to sit tight for now. We believe that there will be a better entry point in the coming months. This does not mean that we see the long-term trend in equities as broken, we are simply being a little bit more cautious regarding the tactical horizon.
Lastly, gold has recently reversed some of its losses. How do you see the development here?

Gold has stabilized because real interest rates have stabilized. The Fed was actually becoming concerned about the rise in real interest rates, which was the reason why gold sold off. Now, we're seeing stabilization and therefore gold has found its bottom. Investors should not to be too bearish on gold at this stage: stay on a neutral allocation and gold may recover further.

- from Credit Suisse

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