31 Jan 2025
A Japanese government panel says an anticipated megaquake in the Nankai Trough along Japan's Pacific Coast could kill up to 298,000 people -- down slightly from an estimate made more than a decade ago.
There is said to be a roughly 80 percent chance that a magnitude 8 to 9 quake will occur along the trough within the next 30 years.
Nagoya University Professor Emeritus Fukuwa Nobuo submitted the panel's report to Disaster Management Minister Sakai Manabu.
Sakai expressed his belief that damage can be reduced if measures are implemented and action is taken based on plans. He said the government will do what it can to promote the measures.
The report says the quake's maximum magnitude will be on the range of nine. Seismic intensity is expected to be at least lower 6 on Japan's scale of zero to 7 in 24 prefectures, and 7 in 10 other prefectures.
The panel estimates tsunami at least 10 meters high could reach Tokyo and 12 other prefectures between the Kanto and Kyushu regions. It also says tsunami more than 30 meters high could strike parts of two prefectures -- Kochi and Shizuoka.
The panel predicts the death toll would be 298,000 in the worst-case scenario of the quake hitting late at night in winter. Most of the fatalities are expected to be caused by tsunami.
The figure is only about 8 percent lower than the previous estimate of 320,000, even though measures have been taken to enable people to evacuate more quickly. These include building seawalls and setting up evacuation towers.
The panel says the fatalities will be sharply lower if more steps are taken.
The panel estimates up to 52,000 people could die from disaster-related causes -- about 13 times the figure for the 2011 quake and tsunami in northeastern Japan. This highlights the need to improve evacuees' living conditions.
Seafloor Tsunami detectors : SNet, DoNet, N-Net:
Fukuwa says people think Japan will be in great danger unless damage from the anticipated megaquake can be reduced, and he hopes measures will be thoroughly implemented.
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