The bank’s analysts, Adam Longson, the head of energy commodity research, on Brent :
Weaker-than-expected demand, higher-than-expected supply, rising inventories and increased hedging incentives all work to delay rebalancing, and slow the rise in prices immediately thereafter
We continue to believe that the oil price beyond 2017 needs to be higher to balance the market. In many cases, this pace of recovery matters as much as the ultimate price
From businessinsider:
Morgan Stanley analysts don't see any evidence of that happening soon:
We are pushing out our view of the recovery in oil by 6-12 months and cutting our oil forecast from the US$50s to high US$20s over the next year
As exploration costs fall, Morgan Stanley's emerging markets analysts see the most upside for China's Cnooc (NYSE:CEO), Argentina's YPF and India's ONGC.
Cnooc boasts the third-largest production growth rates among emerging markets E&P players, the highest realized oil prices and lowest costs within China's top three oil companies, and better production and development know-how than PetroChina (NYSE:PTR) and Sinopec (NYSE:SNP) on offshore reserves, Stanley says.
YPF's current valuation is attractive due to the near-term growth of the existing asset base, leaving a sizable unconventional upside as a free option, and forex pass-through in fuel prices has been working over the past five months and protecting margins, the firm says.
Stanley suggests avoiding Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY), Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) and Petrobras (NYSE:PBR), which it calls its least favorite stock as the company will continue to generate negative free cash flow through 2018 and cash flows primarily will service bondholders to the detriment of equity holders.
Weaker-than-expected demand, higher-than-expected supply, rising inventories and increased hedging incentives all work to delay rebalancing, and slow the rise in prices immediately thereafter
We continue to believe that the oil price beyond 2017 needs to be higher to balance the market. In many cases, this pace of recovery matters as much as the ultimate price
From businessinsider:
Morgan Stanley analysts don't see any evidence of that happening soon:
We are pushing out our view of the recovery in oil by 6-12 months and cutting our oil forecast from the US$50s to high US$20s over the next year
4 Feb, Alan Sheets from the group, said any recovery will need to be a "three step" process, where
an oversupplied market needs to rebalance by cutting production and
increasing demand, working off high oil inventories and allowing
producer hedging to run its course.
However, from seekingAlpha, 17 Jul 2015,
Morgan Stanley highlights three emerging energy stocks to buy:As exploration costs fall, Morgan Stanley's emerging markets analysts see the most upside for China's Cnooc (NYSE:CEO), Argentina's YPF and India's ONGC.
Cnooc boasts the third-largest production growth rates among emerging markets E&P players, the highest realized oil prices and lowest costs within China's top three oil companies, and better production and development know-how than PetroChina (NYSE:PTR) and Sinopec (NYSE:SNP) on offshore reserves, Stanley says.
YPF's current valuation is attractive due to the near-term growth of the existing asset base, leaving a sizable unconventional upside as a free option, and forex pass-through in fuel prices has been working over the past five months and protecting margins, the firm says.
Stanley suggests avoiding Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY), Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) and Petrobras (NYSE:PBR), which it calls its least favorite stock as the company will continue to generate negative free cash flow through 2018 and cash flows primarily will service bondholders to the detriment of equity holders.
bloomberg report
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