3 sep 2026 Outlook for Oceanic Drivers for the Next Season: For the September–November 2026 (SON 2026) season, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts indicate a further development toward stronger El Niño conditions. The seasonal average Niño 3.4 SST ensemble mean anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 3.6°C during SON 2026, with the intensification trajectory peaking in November-December. The spread among individual forecast systems generally remains narrow, reflecting high forecast confidence. In the Indian Ocean, a positive IOD phase is also expected to develop, reaching an SON 2026 seasonal mean value of 0.9°C. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is forecast to remain generally warm, with SSTs in both the North and South Tropical Atlantic staying above normal. RA II (Asia): Multi-model ensemble forecasts indicate significant spatial contrasts in precipitation probabilities. A robust enhancement in the probability for below-normal rainfall dominates the Indian...