Precipitation change The demise of the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644) and the rise of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) marked an epochal moment in Chinese and world history. Attention has been given to the North China droughts during 1627–1643 that destabilized the Ming Dynasty. However, there is little attention paid to how climate influenced the rise of a minority Manchu state in Northeast China and its conquest of the Ming. Here, we find that contrasting climate conditions between North and Northeast China persisted over a six-decade period (1581–1644), which diversely affected economic, societal, and political changes at the regional level. Five successive megadroughts ravaged North China, while relatively wet and mild climate conditions prevailed in the Manchu homeland of Northeast China. Furthermore, in the early decades of Manchu rule in North China (1645–1680), increased precipitation facilitated the Qing Dynasty’s consolidation. Reconstructions and climate model simulations reveale...