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predicting the future

In this light, we should revise our understanding of the whole idea of the “confidence man” - con man, for short. It’s usually thought that the con man finds a way to earn people’s trust, and then takes advantage of them. But when con men succeed, it’s usually because they enlist the confidence heuristic. They don’t show any doubts. They act as if they know what they are doing. There are obvious lessons here for aspiring and actual leaders in politics, business, education and elsewhere. For example, Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania has found that most people respond more enthusiastically to simple, clear rhetoric from leaders, downplaying tradeoffs, than to complex rhetoric that points to competing considerations and that can easily be seen as a sign of weakness. Many successful politicians show an intuitive awareness of the confidence heuristic. Among American presidents, John F. Kennedy stands out, but Ronald Reagan was probably the master. A president has to ...

克拉運河 Isthmus of Kra canal

 In a policy shift, Thai PM Prayut Chan-ocha says state agencies will study the construction of a long-envisioned ocean-linking canal China craves for economic and security reasons 由中國牽頭的「一帶一路」概念近日宣告進入全面推進階段後,據寧波海事局官方微博消息指,泰國克拉運河研究和投資合作洽談會昨日在廣州舉行,會上各方簽署了泰國克拉運河項目合作備忘。多名港航業內人士指出,此舉意味着克拉運河開鑿漸進,待項目落成後,將顯著利好港口和航運業。 If approved, the feasibility study is expected to take two years to complete, and no less than five years but no more than 10 years to actually build the canal, all approvals included. The canal once complete is projected to generate US$300 billion (B9.426 trillion) in revenue in its first 30 years, but carving the canal is projected to cost a relatively mere US$55bn (B1.724trn). At that rate of return every player in the global development market wants in, including China, the US, the UK, India and even Saudi Arabia, Mr Pakdee pointed out. The canal will dramatically reduce transit time, saving ships currently passing through the strait two to three d...

中国智能手机Q3销量苹果跌至第六

赛诺数据显示,截止2018年9月,中国智能手机整体市场相比较去年依然呈缩减状态。9月中国智能手机市场容量3503万台,同比下降7.7%。 就第三季度数据而言,排名前五的手机厂商分别为vivo、OPPO、华为、荣耀和小米,苹果则跌至第六。其中,vivo销量2062万部,同比增长15%,市场份额为19.2%;OPPO销量2058万部,同比下滑4%,市场份额为19.1%;华为销量1711万部,同比增长32%,市场份额15.9%;荣耀销量1362万部,同比增长19%,市场份额12.7%;小米销量1261万部,同比增长1%,市场份额11.7%。 此外,不少厂商也在该季度出现销量同比严重下滑的现象。OPPO同比下滑4%,苹果下滑16%,魅族下滑53%,三星下滑39%,金立下滑82%。由于销量下滑,苹果市场份额则从第一季度和上半年的第二位滑落至第三季度的第六位。 值得注意的是,由于华为和荣耀是分开统计,如果两者销量相加,则华为+荣耀销量为3072万台,市场份额为28.6%,超过vivo位列行业第一。

e2v emerald 67 megapixel global shutter image sensor

Teledyne e2v (Chelmsford, UK) recently announced its Emerald 67 megapixel, the newest member of its Emerald CMOS image sensor family. The new sensor features a high resolution with a small global shutter pixel (2.5µm). Emerald 67M provides ultra-low noise performance and only 2.8e- of readout noise. The sensor is highly sensitive with 70% QE, enabling precise defect and particle identification. The new sensor is compatible with 59 x 59mm² camera platforms and has optical and package centers that are fully aligned for easy integration. It has an APS-C optical format, up to 72 sub LVDS outputs and 8/10/12 bit conversion modes, all within a reliable ceramic µPGA package. teledyne e2v

Dual Native ISO

EOS HD Two dedicated circuits are provided for each pixel. a circuit for low ISO, another circuit for high ISO. It switches the circuit, instead of just applying a gain.  This is used in Sony and  Aptina sensors. sensorworld sony patent US 20170148832 abstract: Imaging sensors, imaging apparatuses, and methods of driving an image sensor are provided. An image sensor can include a semiconductor substrate with a photoelectric conversion element and a charge-conversion element. The sensor can further include a capacitance switch. A charge accumulation element is located adjacent the photoelectric conversion element. At least a portion of the charge accumulation element overlaps a charge accumulation region of the photoelectric conversion element. The charge accumulation element is selectively connected to the charge-voltage conversion element by the capacitance switch. In order to increase the dynamic range of a pixel, it is desirable to incre...

IMX299

IMX299 (4/3rds 11Mp BI CMOS Image Sensor) • High Sensitivity/High Quality Video   - Multi-Aspect BI CMOS Image Sensor   - Large Cell Size :4.63um      - High Dynamic Range:85dB+24dB(TGT)  *WDR   - Dual gain:Analog gain(0-27dB)+12dB(TGT) • High Speed/High Functionality *SLVS-EC    - Still/30fps@14bit,80fps@12bit,4k/80fps@12bit,120fps@10bit   - 1080/120fps(binning),1080(skipping)240fps@10bit  • Synchronize:SLVS-EC(Slave),MIPI(Master/Slave)  • I/F:SLVS-EC,MIPI(D-PHY 4lane 1.728Gbps/lane)  IMX299 appears to be the chip used by the GH5S and BMPCC 4K. Dual Native ISO: The sensor features two analogue amplifying circuits, with a low ISO circuit, and a low noise circuit for each pixel, meaning the camera has two “base ISO*”( The base ISO speed is the camera sensors natural ISO speed, from this gain is added to produce other ISO speeds.) speeds of ISO400, as well as ISO2500.

習近平 人格分析

大陸一些媒體曾轉載了日本《鑽石周刊》網站的一篇關於習近平8個特徵的文章。習的8個特徵中包括 敢於打破陳規舊習、 掌控能力強、 最後由自己做決定、 敢於冒險、 行動無法預知等, 而這些特徵在這兩年多的中共高層博弈中屢屢體現,敢於對高層「開刀」就是體現之一。  習近平的決策心理分析  - 李智琦 從習近平的人格分析究之,其表面看似 草根、直率的性格卻也隱含了對權力的追求 ,但運籌帷幄的手段則是「弱鳥先飛、滴水穿石」。習近平行事務實、耐心布局、講求集體分工、重視群眾反應的性格將體現在執政第一任期,除了旨在穩固執政班底之外,在重大的決策上將延續 過去的大方向,「胡規習隨」、甚至是「江規習隨」的現象將不令人意外。值得一提的是,習近平的政治敏感度是在  第一、二代元老間的氛圍之中培養出來的,依此衍生出對 世局的見解可能與前代的意識形態藕斷絲連。他雖不至於   固守舊時的冷戰思維,但想冀望他在執政初期大力地在黨  內外進行民主改革以及終止與美國在「超強」上的惡性競 爭恐怕是不切實際的; 2013年1月爆發的「南方周末事件」顯見中共高層對新聞箝制仍嚴。此外,在前日北韓飛   彈威脅期間,儘管美國的多次喊話以及美國國務卿凱瑞(John Kerry)的到訪,希望中國能壓制北韓,習近平卻仍 不為所動,反觀在聯合金磚四國與南方國家對抗已開發等   歐美國家的態勢漸露。在「 中國夢 」的前提下,經貿發展 與提升中國整體國力將是習近平的治國優先順序,「 趕歐超美 」還是主要目標。 boxun: 分析习近平性格特征:     1.粗暴、蛮横、强势、好功名,心胸狭窄,任人唯亲善于掩饰,表明他不可能主动进行社会转型,民主宪政,比较适应极权主义制度。     2. 朴实表明他注重目的和结果不注重过程,敢于违反法律,中国会全面流氓化。     3. 传统文化和中国宗教情节导致他不喜欢新的和西方文化,思想具有保守性,排斥基督教等西方文化。     4. 好色的性格,待他权力稳固,会使他放纵情欲、堕...