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In this light, we should revise our understanding of the whole idea of the “confidence man” - con man, for short. It’s usually thought that the con man finds a way to earn people’s trust, and then takes advantage of them. But when con men succeed, it’s usually because they enlist the confidence heuristic. They don’t show any doubts. They act as if they know what they are doing. There are obvious lessons here for aspiring and actual leaders in politics, business, education and elsewhere. For example, Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania has found that most people respond more enthusiastically to simple, clear rhetoric from leaders, downplaying tradeoffs, than to complex rhetoric that points to competing considerations and that can easily be seen as a sign of weakness. Many successful politicians show an intuitive awareness of the confidence heuristic. Among American presidents, John F. Kennedy stands out, but Ronald Reagan was probably the master. A president has to ...

 In a policy shift, Thai PM Prayut Chan-ocha says state agencies will study the construction of a long-envisioned ocean-linking canal China craves for economic and security reasons 由中國牽頭的「一帶一路」概念近日宣告進入全面推進階段後，據寧波海事局官方微博消息指，泰國克拉運河研究和投資合作洽談會昨日在廣州舉行，會上各方簽署了泰國克拉運河項目合作備忘。多名港航業內人士指出，此舉意味着克拉運河開鑿漸進，待項目落成後，將顯著利好港口和航運業。 If approved, the feasibility study is expected to take two years to complete, and no less than five years but no more than 10 years to actually build the canal, all approvals included. The canal once complete is projected to generate US$300 billion (B9.426 trillion) in revenue in its first 30 years, but carving the canal is projected to cost a relatively mere US$55bn (B1.724trn). At that rate of return every player in the global development market wants in, including China, the US, the UK, India and even Saudi Arabia, Mr Pakdee pointed out. The canal will dramatically reduce transit time, saving ships currently passing through the strait two to three d...